With a bit of luck both Ascot and Haydock can escape the worst of the wintery weather to make up a cracking six race double bill live on Channel 4 on Saturday afternoon.
It’s an early start for yours truly in front of the Morning Line cameras, and it should be a show well worth tuning in for with guest contributions from the BHA’s Director of Security Paul Scotney, plus top rider Christian Williams.
I’ll also be out and about chatting to Ascot Clerk of the Course Chris Stickels, plus Ladbrokes very own David Cameron look and sound-a-like David Williams who’ll be unveiling news of their best punter friendly concessions on one of the key days in the Magic Sign’s sponsorship portfolio.
At the time of writing rumour has it that’ll mean Ladbrokes offering to refund stakes on the horse who finishes second to Big Bucks in the Long Walk, which essentially for many people will mean a bet to nothing on the improving Dynaste. Not bad.
Out on the track there’s plenty to say about Saturday’s racing, but both main cards will be hugely influenced by the weather and indeed the relatively testing conditions if they get the go ahead.
Ascot’s ground was changed to Soft ahead of Friday’s card, while Haydock is Heavy having absorbed a lot of rain, but also threatened by snow and frost.
Fingers crossed they can survive at the Newton-le-Willows track, as I’ve got their 2m 4f handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.10pm down to just two options, both of whom will thrive on the ground while others are dropping like flies.
Both are towards the head of the weights, but both are sizeable prices and certainly worth chancing on a day which could throw up some decent priced winners.
First up is Philip Hobbs’ six-year-old Priolo gelding Pateese, who isn’t well treated off 140 but does have decent Conditional Matt Griffiths on top to alleviate some of his big weight.
He looked a totally different animal on Soft ground when scooting up in a Sandown handicap off 128 at the start of November, and off the back of that effort went off favourite for the Greatwood no less (which may have come too quick).
He has only been out of the frame twice in nine starts over hurdles, and can take advantage of these conditions to run a big race at 9/1 each way with Victor Chandler.
Backing two in the same race isn’t my ideal approach, but sometimes it can be considered a necessary evil, as it is in the case of Venetia Williams’ mud lover Houblon Des Obeaux.
There were whispers from within his stable that he might have a genuine chance at the top level in the Triumph Hurdle after he got the job done in deep ground in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock in February, but this will be the first time since then he’s had his ground and only his third handicap, and even that’s from a reduced mark.
As a course winner he deserves respect, and at 12/1 each way with Ladbrokes i’d be in no way surprised if he popped up here.
I’m sure you’ve already read that Donald McCain has given Peddlers Cross the day off rather than risk him on bottomless ground at Haydock, but one stable star making the short journey from Cheshire is Wymott, who’ll be fully revved up for his attempt at the feature Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at 2.45pm.
On ground he’ll love he has a favourite’s chance, and can net his first win since February.
Down at Ascot had the ground remained Good I’d have been gearing up for a tilt at Massini’s Maguire in the Silver Cup on just his second run for David Pipe, but leaving that contest well alone I’ll fast forward to the final race on the card, Europe’s most valuable Handicap Hurdle no less, in the shape of the Ladbroke Hurdle at 3.35pm.
Favourite Prospect Wells joined Paul Nicholls from Howard Johnson in the summer, and has hit the ground running with a pair of wins at Chepstow and Newbury sandwiching a highly creditable effort at Cheltenham, when he was worn down in the dying strides by Steps To Freedom.
He was very handy on the Flat, and might be a good thing with Ruby up and mark of 142 guaranteeing a lovely racing weight (10.9), but 4/1 is short enough for one with so little experience (only three starts over timber), and there is a chance he might find it happening all a bit too fast against seasoned pros.
Over the last few campaigns the stats are rotten for the four year olds, with a recent record of 0-27 enough to concern anyone thinking of backing fancied contenders such as Prospect Wells’ stablemate Brampour (who’s technically nine pounds well in but has top weight), sole Irish challenger Sailors Warn, or northern contender Abergavenny.
Interestingly the stats also show that the last eight winners were aged between five and seven, and most had run no more than ten times in this discipline.
One who conforms, acts on the ground, and might be a shorter price if he hailed from a more fashionable stable is Lucy Wadham’s Alarazi, who was smart on the Flat when with John Oxx, has had a run to sharpen him up, and might think Christmas has come early with a feather weight to carry and the great Richard Johnson on his back.
You don’t need a long memory to recall him hacking up in the Imperial Cup in March, and though he hasn’t won since he has been highly tried, and to me it seems far too soon to write off this good looking son of Spectrum, which freely available quotes of 20/1 appear to.
Bet365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes or Stan James will all lay you the top price.
Good luck!
Saturday’s best bets:
2.10 Haydock – Maxilead Metals Supports Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Handicap Hurdle – 2 Pateese (each way) @ 9/1 (Victor Chandler)
2.10 Haydock – Maxilead Metals Supports Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Handicap Hurdle – 3 Houblon Des Obeaux (each way) @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)
2.45 Haydock – Maxilead Metals Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase – 2 Wymott (win) @ 7/2 (Boylesports or William Hill)
3.35 Ascot – The Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle – 11 Alarazi (each way) @ 20/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes or Stan James)
